Sta/Medr/04/2025: Progression from Year 11 to tertiary education, August 2017 to January 2025

Summary

This analysis builds on that previously published as part of the Welsh Government statistical article ‘outcomes for learners in post-16 education affected by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic: August 2020 to July 2021‘. It aims to provide an up to date picture of progression from Year 11 to tertiary education.

The Year 11 cohorts in this analysis are based on all learners enrolled in Year 11 in maintained secondary, middle and special schools in Wales.

The tertiary education destinations considered in this analysis are publicly funded provision in maintained school sixth forms, further education colleges (excluding adult community learning) and work-based learning providers in Wales. Also included is post-16 learning in maintained special schools and the Welsh Government’s Jobs Growth Wales+ / Traineeships employability programmes.

The analysis does not include tertiary destinations in independent schools, other independent or specialist learning providers, tertiary education outside of Wales or any other post-16 EOTAS (Educated Other Than at School) provision.

Main points

• The provisional proportion of learners progressing from Year 11 to tertiary education was 90% in 2024/25, unchanged from the previous three years.
• The number of learners progressing has increased steadily since 2018/19.
• Of the learners that progressed from Year 11 to tertiary education:
  • An increasing proportion are progressing to further education colleges, with a corresponding decrease in those progressing to sixth forms.
  • There have been recent decreases in the proportion of learners studying at level 3 (including AS levels).
• There are differences in progression between different groups of learners. The proportion progressing was higher for learners who are:
  • Female
  • Living in the least deprived neighbourhoods
  • Not eligible for Free School Meals
  • Not accessing special educational needs or additional learning needs provision
  • From Asian, Asian British, Asian Welsh ethnic groups
  • Competent or fluent in their acquisition of English as an additional language
  • Attending Welsh medium schools in Year 11, or are fluent in Welsh.
• There was substantial variation in the type and level of tertiary education provision between different groups of learners and geographically.

You can find the full data in the PDF Sta/Medr/04/2025.

Quality and methodology

Data sources

The data sources used in this release are:

• Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC): an electronic collection of pupil and school level data provided to Welsh Government by all maintained sector primary, middle, secondary, nursery and special schools. The data collected is based on a January census date.
• Post-16 Data Collection: every autumn, all maintained schools with sixth forms are required to report all learning programmes and activities undertaken by pupils in the previous academic year.
• Lifelong Learning Wales Record (LLWR): data on further education, work-based learning and adult community learning. It’s collected on a ‘rolling’ basis throughout the year with regular statistical freezes. It is the official source of statistics in Wales for these sectors.
• School attendance weekly management information data collection: weekly data extracted directly from school management information systems started in Autumn 2020. The data is collected from all maintained nursery, primary, middle, secondary and special schools and any pupil referral units that have such management information systems and routinely record their information electronically.

Methodology

The main changes to the methodology used in the analysis previously published in the Welsh Government statistical article ‘outcomes for learners in post-16 education affected by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic: August 2020 to July 2021‘ are:

• For academic years 2022/23 and previous, final datasets are used to identify tertiary education destinations rather than in-year datasets subject to further change.
• The Post-16 Data Collection is used for sixth form destinations as far as possible, providing information on the type of learning programme being studied. Weekly management information on school attendance is used for 2023/24 and 2024/25 as the Post-16 Data Collection is not yet available for these years.
• Post-16 learning destinations in maintained special schools are reported.

Year 11 cohorts are defined as any learner on roll in a maintained secondary, middle or special school in Wales on the PLASC census date.

For academic years 2017/18 to 2022/23, the Post-16 Data Collection and LLWR are used to identify tertiary education programmes of study that were active at any point during the year. Programmes included in this analysis include the following publicly funded learning:

• Any programme of study in school sixth forms.
• Further education undertaken in further education colleges.
• Work-based learning, either undertaken in further education colleges or private training providers including apprenticeships, Jobs Growth Wales+ and traineeships.

PLASC data is also used to identify any learners undertaking post-16 provision in maintained special schools.

For academic years 2023/24 and 2024/25, LLWR data is used as above. The Post-16 Data Collection is not currently available for these years, therefore weekly management information on school attendance is used to identify learners in school sixth forms and undertaking post-16 provision in maintained special schools. There are a number of limitations as a result of using this management information.

Based on comparisons for the 2021/22 and 2022/23 academic years, the weekly management information on school attendance over-estimates overall progression by around half a percentage point compared to the Post-16 Data Collection. It also causes over-estimates in the proportion of learners switching their tertiary education programme and leaving their tertiary education programme without completing it.

Of the learners who progressed, the proportions attending sixth forms are over-estimated by between 1.5 and 3 percentage points, with an under-estimate in proportions attending FE colleges.

Year 11 cohorts are then linked to the various datasets containing information on tertiary education – initially on the Unique Pupil Number and Unique Learner Numbers, with further linkage on unmatched records based on names and dates of birth.

Limitations

Figures for 2024/25 are provisional as they are based on in-year data. Tertiary programmes of study have been drawn from the January 2025 LLWR freeze. The data may not fully reflect all learning up to the point the freeze was taken and will be subject to change in the future. Data for the remainder of the academic year is not included, which may affect statistics for 2024/25. A relatively small number of learners may start their first tertiary programme of study after January, most commonly in work-based learning.

For 2024/25, weekly management information on school attendance is available up to the end of the winter term.

Figures for 2023/24 are also provisional as the Post-16 Data Collection will replace the weekly management information on school attendance once it is available.

The weekly management information on school attendance has not undergone the same level of quality assurance as accredited official statistics and the data may be subject to future revisions. It does not provide any information on the learner’s programme of study.

This analysis does not include tertiary education destinations outside of Wales, or any independent or specialist tertiary education. The proportion of learners progressing from Year 11 to tertiary education in local authorities that border England (Flintshire, Wrexham, Powys, Monmouthshire) is likely to be affected.

Definitions

The tertiary education destinations reported in this analysis are based on the first programme of study undertaken by the learner. When identifying a learner’s first programme the following programmes are prioritised over other FE programmes: AS level, A2 level, vocational, apprenticeships and Jobs Growth Wales+/traineeships. The most common programmes they’re prioritised over are GCSEs which are often taken as supplemental courses.

Only enrolment into the academic year immediately following Year 11 is included. Learners who started tertiary education in a later academic year are not included in this analysis.

Where weekly management information on school attendance is used, learners are considered to be still enrolled in tertiary education if they have an attendance or authorised absence record within 2 weeks of the following dates:

• 31May 2024 for the 2023/24 academic year, as the attendance data becomes more unreliable during the summer examination period.
• 20 December 2024 for the 2024/25 academic year, the final data of the winter term as data for only part of the academic year is available.

The school attendance dataset is taken directly from schools’ Management Information Systems. In some cases learners appear to be automatically rolled over from Year 11 into Year 12 when this was not the case. Because of this a learner is not listed as enrolled if they were:

• not listed as enrolled after 6 September,
• and had not attended the school or had a specific recognised absence before 6 September,
• and it was the same school that they were enrolled into in Year 11.

All analysis by characteristics are based on those recorded for the learner as part of their Year 11 PLASC record.

The deprivation decile of the learner’s home neighbourhood is based on the main index of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019.

‘AS level’ tertiary destinations here include both AS level and AS level equivalent programmes. AS level equivalent programmes consist of a mixture of AS levels and vocational qualifications, for example 2 AS levels and a BTEC National Certificate.

Rounding and suppression

All figures are rounded to the nearest 5. Numbers less than 5 are suppressed. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number. Percentages based on a denominator of less than 23 are suppressed.

Differences between values are calculated using unrounded values, so there may be small discrepancies when compared with the rounded figures.

Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

All of our statistics are produced and published in accordance with a number of statements and protocols to enhance trustworthiness, quality and value. These are set out in our Statement of Compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards.

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing [email protected] or via the OSR website.

Trustworthiness

These statistics have been published according to our Statement of Compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics and pre-release access to official statistics policy.

Quality

The statistics in this release have largely been produced from final versions of recognised administrative data sources used to produce official statistics on education in Wales. These have been supplemented with weekly management information on school attendance to provide the most recent estimates of progression from Year 11 to tertiary education (for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 academic years). The limitations of using this management information have been explained and these estimates are marked as provisional.

Value

These official statistics in development aim to comply with the Code as far as possible. They have been produced rapidly in response to demands for better analysis on participation in tertiary education in Wales.

They are labelled as ‘official statistics in development’ to test whether they meet user needs and to reflect that the methodology is not fixed and could be further developed based on user feedback. We would welcome any comment on the usefulness of these statistics. Please contact [email protected].