Sta/Medr/08/2026: Progression from Year 11 to tertiary education, August 2023 to November 2025

This analysis builds on that previously published as part of the Welsh Government statistical article Outcomes for learners in post-16 education affected by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic: August 2020 to July 2021. It aims to provide an up to date picture of progression from Year 11 to tertiary education.

The Year 11 cohorts in this analysis are based on all learners enrolled in Year 11 in maintained secondary, middle and special schools in Wales. Figures for 2025/26 are provisional as they are based on in-year data.

Tertiary education is defined in this analysis as provision that is now funded and regulated by Medr. This encompasses publicly funded provision delivered by maintained school sixth forms, further education colleges and apprenticeship providers in Wales.

This is a change from the previous release where a slightly wider definition of tertiary education was used that included post-16 learning in maintained special schools and the Welsh Government’s Jobs Growth Wales+ / Traineeships employability programmes.

The analysis does not include tertiary destinations in independent schools, other independent or specialist learning providers, adult community learning (including that delivered by colleges), tertiary education outside of Wales or any other post-16 EOTAS (Educated Other Than at School) provision.

Main points

• The provisional proportion of learners progressing from Year 11 to tertiary education was 85% in 2025/26, unchanged from the previous 2 years.
• The number of learners progressing increased steadily between 2018/19 and 2024/25 before falling in 2025/26, in line with changes to Year 11 cohort sizes.
• Of the learners that progressed from Year 11 to tertiary education:
  • An increasing proportion are progressing to further education colleges, with a corresponding decrease in those progressing to sixth forms.
  • The proportion of learners studying at level 3 (including AS levels) continues to decrease.
• There are differences in progression between different groups of learners. The proportion progressing was higher for learners who are:
  • Female
  • Living in the least deprived neighbourhoods
  • Not eligible for Free School Meals
  • Not accessing special educational needs or additional learning needs provision
  • With Asian, Asian British or Asian Welsh, or Black, Black Welsh, Black British, Caribbean or African backgrounds
  • Competent or fluent in their acquisition of English as an additional language
  • Attending Welsh medium schools in Year 11 or are fluent in Welsh.
• There was substantial variation in the type and level of tertiary education provision between different groups of learners and geographically.